It is certain that the “hawkish” steps taken within the scope of the fight against inflation, which has been going on for about 2 years, will be replaced by interest rate cuts next year. While it is estimated that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lead these steps on a global basis, March continues to stand out for the first interest rate cut in the pricing in money markets, despite the verbal guidance of Fed members.
While these developments continue to support the buyer trend in the bond markets, the US 10-year bond interest rate is close to the lowest level since July at 3.88 percent. This situation helps the upward trend in the ounce price of gold to continue. The ounce price of gold is currently just below the previous close at $2,066. Developments in the Red Sea continue to have an impact on oil and natural gas prices.
Accordingly, while the barrel price of Brent oil climbed above 80 dollars again with an increase of 1.9 percent yesterday, it finds buyers at 80.7 dollars with a 0.3 percent gain in value on the new day. With these developments in the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the Nasdaq index increased by 0.54 percent, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.42 percent and the Dow Jones index increased by 0.43 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a mixed course. While there were no transactions in European stock exchanges yesterday due to the holiday, all European stock exchanges will reopen today.
While a buying-oriented trend stands out in Asian stock markets on the new day, the news flow from China supports the risk appetite. Accordingly, while the strong pricing that the Fed will start reducing interest rates in March pushes the indices in Asia, led by technology stocks, the news that the Chinese government may loosen restrictions on the gaming industry is also effective in this trend. In addition, the industrial profitability announced in the country increased by 29.5 percent annually with the base effect, revealing expectations that economic activity in the country may have started to strengthen again.
On the other hand, the minutes of the meeting held by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last week also attracted attention, with some members emphasizing that there was no need to rush to return from the negative policy rate. With the publication of the minutes, Japan’s 10-year bond interest rate moved in a downward trend, while the dollar/yen parity rose, albeit limitedly.
Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 1.2 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.1 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.5 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 1.6 percent. Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index, which followed a fluctuating course in the country yesterday, completed the day at 7,299.33 points with a 0.47 percent gain in value.
Dollar/TL is traded at 29.3430 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing the day at 29.0976, 0.2 percent below its previous closing yesterday. Analysts stated that the domestic data agenda is calm today, and that the Richmond manufacturing industry index data in the USA will be followed abroad. Technically, 7,100 and 6,850 points in the BIST 100 index are support, and 7,350 and 7,500 levels are resistance.
